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Unfinished jobs

In Kürze

As Ukraine mourns the numerous victims and damages suffered one year into Russia’s invasion, global equities have recovered from their initial sell-off, even if still down 4.3% since Feb 24, 2022. Bond markets, by contrast, have taken a more persistent hit.

Highlights:

  • Central  banks’  uphill  battle  against  inflation overshoots is getting even harder.
  • February has poured cold water on hopes that policy makers may quickly tame inflation towards target. We now have even higher peak rates in our books.
  • The recent rebound in long-term real rates makes Equity  valuations  look  even  more  stretched. Bottoming  growth in European  and  China’s reopening bounce are only a partial relief.
  • We continue to favour a (trimmed) underweight in Equities and HY, while seeing value (mostly in the carry) in IG Credit.
     

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