A better growth outlook leads the Fed to a pause

In Kürze

The January meeting contained two surprises: Governor Waller joined Governor Miran in dissenting from the decision to keep rates unchanged, instead arguing for a cut; secondly, and most importantly, the FOMC appeared significantly more optimistic about the growth outlook.

Highlights

  • The January FOMC meeting revealed a more optimistic economic outlook, with the committee highlight-
    ing improved activity data and a stabilising labour market.
  • Chair Powell emphasised sustained economic strength and a stable 4.4% unemployment rate, nothing that inflation remains persistent due the one off impact tariffs, but disinflation is expected in the coming months, and expectations remain anchored.
  • The Fed is likely to pause further rate cuts until at least June, given diminished risks to inflation and employment.

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A better growth outlook leads the Fed to a pause
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