2020 MACRO OUTLOOK

Repression, Introspection, Election

 

2019 was a blockbuster year for financial returns, as equity markets climbed a wall of worry – exactly like in 2016. But 2020 will not be a repeat of 2017, if only because the economic upturn will be much softer this time around.

In this video, Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management*, shares his view on next year’s key defining macro themes and financial outlook.

REPRESSION, INTROSPECTION, ELECTION

2020 Outlook by Vincent Chaigneau,
Head of Research

RELATED INSIGHTS

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
G7 finance ministers are expected to signal their support for extending a debt relief programme aimed at helping the poorest countries. SinoVac’s CEO said the company will be ready for worldwide distribution of its coronavirus vaccine by early next year. Moderna says it expect to produce 20 million doses of its experimental vaccine by the end of the year.
CHINA’S AGGREGATE DEMAND SHOWS SIGNS OF CATCHING UP
China’s August data set came in on the strong side. Even more importantly, the recovery seems to broaden to the demand side which had been lagging behind so far. However, in part the data may look too positive, as a payback effect from previous flooding may be involved. This implies that the outlook still needs confirmation.
EQUITIES: POSITIVE RETURNS AHEAD DESPITE CHALLENGES
Equity markets have rebounded from a historical slump in Q1, with US markets even posting fresh record highs. We acknowledge the risen risks of setbacks amid loftier valuations, elevated political risks (US elections, Brexit and US-China frictions) and Covid uncertainties into autumn.

*Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio is part of Generali Investments multi-boutique platform