Plenisfer Investments I Letter from the CEO: Investing in a new world order
In Short
The second quarter of 2025 opened with Liberation Day, which swept the markets, and it closed with US equities back near all-time highs. With valuations at 22.5 times the price/earnings ratio*, the market is not only demonstrating an incredible ability to ignore any negative news, but it is also underestimating five risk factors:
1. Geopolitical risks of further escalation of existing (Middle East, Eastern Europe) or potential (Taiwan) military conflicts.
2. Growing social and political tensions in the United States, at a level of an intensity not seen since the Vietnam War.
3. Tariff-related economic risks, which could simultaneously lead to a slowdown in economic growth and a rise in inflation.
4. An unprecedented public and private debt load in the US.
5. The largest capital expenditure in history (on artificial intelligence), in itself a positive factor, were it not for the fact that the return on that investment is at least uncertain.
Are we then back to “American exceptionalism”, prematurely given up for dead?
To answer this, it is worth remembering that this is based on four pillars that appear increasingly fragile as a new world order, economic, political and monetary, emerges.
