Macro & Market Research

Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:

 

THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Annual Outlook


Outlook 2020 - Repression, Introspection, Election

As the tide of easy monetary policy slowly goes out, global markets face another challenging year. Yet 2019 will be very different from 2018, as the US economy is set to fall off its pedestal; the Fed will pause this summer, if not before.

 
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Market Perspectives and Investment View

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(Vir)alteration of investor optimism

31/01/2020

Just as the trade truce provided broad-based relief, the Coronavirus is unsettling global markets.

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Goldilocks ‘light’

29/11/2019

Receding political risks, tender economic greenshoots and accommodative central banks haveunderpinned risk assets, benefitting our pro-riskstance.

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Tail risks get thinner

31/10/2019

Investors entered the autumn with great anxiety about the trade war and Brexit. Those risks have abated, and so have flight-to-quality flows.

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Core Matters

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International health insurance demand and future evolution

28/01/2020

The economics of health is different, and complicated by adverse selection and moral hazard issues.

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Germany’s fading shine

15/01/2020

The protracted weakness of inflation during the past cyclical upswing caught central banks and investors by surprise.

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Where has inflation gone?

19/12/2019

The protracted weakness of inflation during the past cyclical upswing caught central banks and investors by surprise.

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Focal Points

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The Corona virus: What to expect?

30/01/2020

The outbreak of the Corona virus (2019-nCoV) is spreading fears around the globe and rattling financial markets.

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US outlook: a soft landing supported by the Fed

28/01/2020

Fears of a US recession have abated, but we still expect growth to ease from 2.2% to 1.6% in 2020.

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Low bond yields to sustain equity returns

02/01/2020

Global equity markets posted very strong total returns year-to-date (+28%), mainly through PE expansion, in part explained by low yields.

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Market commentaries

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The Fed clarifies a few points.

29/01/2020

The January meeting brought no changes in either the assessment of the economy or in the policy rate.

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ECB focuses on strategy review

23/01/2020

The ECB Governing Council formally launched a comprehensive monetary policy review that shall be completed by end of 2020.

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US Q4 2019 earnings season starts decently well.

21/01/2020

After 9% of the US results are out, both median yearly growth and surprises vs consensus look decent.

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Macro view videos

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2020 Outlook Video – Repression, introspection, election

17/12/2019

In this video Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, shares key market views for the coming year. Find out more!

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Market view video: THE NEGATIVE YIELD DISEASE IS SPREADING

09/09/2019

Watch this video and discover our experts view on financial markets.

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Market view video: WET BLANKETS

07/06/2019

Watch this video and discover our experts view on financial markets.

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