Plenisfer I Flash Outlook

In Short

The view from Plenisfer Investments on the current market situation and perspectives for asset allocation against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

While it is difficult to predict what will happen in the short term, one thing is certain: the invasion of Russia will have long-term consequences. The evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war in the coming months will have an impact on Putin's presidency and Russia's geopolitical position globally.

If there is a quick resolution to the war - which we believe is unlikely - investors' attention will shift back to previous inflation concerns and future central bank decisions. In the opposite case, a long-term stagflation scenario is becoming increasingly likely, driven by spikes in energy prices and their impact on income in Western countries, especially in Europe. 

We expect the US Federal Reserve to continue its restrictive monetary policy plan, as confirmed by Powell in early March, as the US remains economically less affected by the Ukrainian war, although it is still suffering from the current energy shock. On the other hand, on the part of the ECB, the European Central Bank, a wait-and-see approach is likely to be what we get in the coming months. 

Download the full article below:

Flash Focus March_outlook_EN.pdf

© Generali Investments, all rights reserved. This website is provided by Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. as the holding company of the main asset management companies of the Generali Group having, directly or indirectly, the majority shareholding in the companies listed below (hereinafter jointly, “Generali Investments”). This website may contain information related to the activity of the following companies: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (including Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* and among its subsidiaries Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - including Global Evolution USA, LLC and Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC as well as Generali Investments CEE. *Includes Conning, Inc., Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc., Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (collectively, “Conning”).