Market Compass November 2023

In Short

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • Major central banks have reached peak rates, which are set to maintain for long.
  • A bleaker growth outlook and safe-haven flows amid geopolitical risks, may help yields to recede from recent peaks. But heavy supply and quantitative tightening will keep the decline modest.
  • The relief on risk assets should be limited, given the deteriorating earnings outlook. The MSCI World, down 10% over the past three months, remains under pressure.
  • We keep overweight in Investment Grade (IG) Credit and EM bonds and underweight in Equities and High Yield (HY) Credit, but slightly trim the extent of the positions. We favour a moderately long duration in core and quasi Govies.

 

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Market Compass November 2023
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