Aperture Investors | Global Conflict and the Current Macro Environment: Evaluating Markets in the Near-Term
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With summer in full swing and the first half of 2022 behind us, it’s a good time to take stock of recent events. As we look ahead to September and October - typically the two most volatile months for markets - I am reminded that according to S&P, there is little if any historical correlation between the first and second halves of the year.1 I start with Russia and the war in Ukraine, a theme that will come up repeatedly throughout this letter. I then talk about potential ramifications for China and Taiwan, after which I take a close look at macroeconomic factors in Europe and the US. Finally, I’ll discuss my view on ways the war might come to some kind of resolution and I summarize my predictions for the remainder of the year.
What’s Up with Putin?
Rumors have circulated for months (and recent video evidence seems to indicate) that Putin is suffering from Parkinsons, or cancer. In either case, it’s possible he could have as few as six months left to live. Recent footage lends credibility to these rumors; his performance could potentially be explained by heavy medication.