Plenisfer I Flash Outlook

In Short

The view from Plenisfer Investments on the current market situation and perspectives for asset allocation against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

While it is difficult to predict what will happen in the short term, one thing is certain: the invasion of Russia will have long-term consequences. The evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war in the coming months will have an impact on Putin's presidency and Russia's geopolitical position globally.

If there is a quick resolution to the war - which we believe is unlikely - investors' attention will shift back to previous inflation concerns and future central bank decisions. In the opposite case, a long-term stagflation scenario is becoming increasingly likely, driven by spikes in energy prices and their impact on income in Western countries, especially in Europe. 

We expect the US Federal Reserve to continue its restrictive monetary policy plan, as confirmed by Powell in early March, as the US remains economically less affected by the Ukrainian war, although it is still suffering from the current energy shock. On the other hand, on the part of the ECB, the European Central Bank, a wait-and-see approach is likely to be what we get in the coming months. 

Download the full article below:

Flash Focus March_outlook_EN.pdf

© Generali Investments, all rights reserved. This website is provided by Generali Investments and is considered as a marketing communication and financial promotion related to the products and services of the following companies belonging to the Generali group: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio and Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. (hereinafter jointly, Generali Investments). Moreover, the website may contain marketing communication and financial promotion of products and services of companies part of the multi-boutique platform coordinated by Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio and in particular of Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC., Plenisfer Investments SGR, Lumyna Investments, Sosteneo Infrastructure Partners SGR and Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di Gestione del Risparmio