30 octobre 2025

ECB maintains a steady hand as it continues to see itself in a good place

En bref

ECB kept key rate unchanged today: At today’s meeting the GC left its key rate, the deposit rate, at 2.00% for the third consecutive time. It continues with fully non-reinvestments of its APP and PEPP purchases.

Highlights

At today’s meeting the ECB’s Governing Council (GC) unanimously and unsurprisingly decided to keep its key rate unchanged at 2.0% as the inflation outlook remained broadly unchanged and confidence into the recovery increased.
While acknowledging that some growth risks mitigated (EU/US trade deal, Middle East ceasefire, US/China trade deal) the GC again restrained from mentioning a balance of risks. Also, it continues to see higher than usual inflation uncertainty due to the global trade environment and geopolitical tensions.
During the press conference President Lagarde carefully avoided to signal any policy bias but reiterated that monetary policy was “in a good place”. The GC is in a wait-and-see modus. All eyes are now moving to the December meeting when updated macro projection will be extended to 2028.
We feel confirmed in our view that unless some downside risks materialize the ECB has terminated its cutting cycle and stays on hold at 2.0% for the time being.

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ECB maintains a steady hand as it continues to see itself in a good place

30 octobre 2025

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