Cookie settings
Picture
Contactez-nous
Picture

EM – No Turkish contagion

En bref

In our view, the recent significant depreciation of the TRY and the uncertainties related to the future monetary policy should have limited and manageable impacts on global EM assets. Indeed, the CBRT has kept cutting its policy rate with a 100bp rate cut to 15.00%, and the communiqué leaves the door open for further easing in December.

Highlights:

  • Turkey has been back at the forefront of EM concerns as the TRY has been depreciating rapidly. The pace of depreciation has accelerated after the last CBRT rate cut, and risks are skewed for more TRY depreciation.
  • Like in Q121, we expect the Turkish developments to have a limited impact on other EMs countries and EM assets. Risks have been well flagged, and investors' positioning is close to lows.
  • If any contagion, the channel could be via portfolio adjustments. It would be temporary and limited. EMEA FX yielders would be the most vulnerable.
  • We do not see value in Turkish assets yet. The main difference from previous market stress episodes is the limited push-back from authorities. There is a clear will for a weaker FX.
  • The sovereign is not the most vulnerable link. However, the situation is still fluid, and we keep our negative view on Turkish sovereign credit before reassessing our position. The market reaction should be more limited than on March 21.

Download the full publication below

EM – No Turkish contagion
Notre Offre
Investissement Responsable
Actualités
Nous Connaître
Contactez-Nous
Picture
Picture
Picture

© Generali Investments, tous droits réservés. Ce site internet est publié par Generali Investments et est considéré comme une communication marketing et une promotion financière liée aux produits et services des sociétés du groupe Generali suivantes : Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. et Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. (ci-après dénommées ensemble Generali Investments). En outre, le site peut contenir des communications de marketing et de promotion financière de produits et services de sociétés faisant partie de la plate-forme Multi-Boutiques coordonnée par Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, et en particulier de Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC, Plenisfer Investments SGR, Lumyna Investments, Sosteneo Infrastructure Partners SGR et Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di Gestione del Risparmio.

Informations juridiques
Politique en Matière de Cookies
Politique de Confidentialité
Conditions Générales
Droits d’Auteur
Gender equality index
Glossaire