Third time lucky?

In Short

With markets bearishly positioned and panicking central banks raising rates aggressively, even faint hopes of a looming Fed pivot can send markets soaring.

Highlights:

  • For the third time since summer, hopes of an imminent Fed pivot have triggered market relief. 
  • That still looks premature as big inflation overshoots keep steering central banks’ hands for  now. Yet markets  may take  some  comfort from a slower pace of Fed and ECB tightening  after   fresh  Oct/Nov jumbo hikes.  Warm  weather and falling natural gas prices are also helping  sentiment just now. 
  • Amid  strong headwinds  from  a developing euro area recession and cracks in the financial  plumbing, we stick to a prudent allocation stance. 
  • We keep a underweight in risky assets   (Equities,  HY),   while preferring IG Credit and Cash.  A reversal of stretched USD strength is not (yet) due. 
     

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Market Perspectives ǀ Third time lucky ?
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