The hour of the hawks
- Escalation risks of the Russian war in Ukraine, looming cuts in EU energy supply and the fallout of China’s (increasingly desperate) zero-Covid strategy are continued headwinds for the economy and risk assets.
- Despite the global slowdown in the working, the monetary hawks are taking flight. Complacent on inflation for too long, the Fed is rushing into sizeable rate hikes while ECB officials are mulling a hasty lift-off as soon as July.
- We keep a mild underweight on equities. Further upside for yields is more limited as global inflation is near peak and markets already discount a (too) long series of aggressive rate hikes. Credit offers a juicy carry, but we prefer safer segments in IG.