2020 MACRO OUTLOOK

Repression, Introspection, Election

 

2019 was a blockbuster year for financial returns, as equity markets climbed a wall of worry – exactly like in 2016. But 2020 will not be a repeat of 2017, if only because the economic upturn will be much softer this time around.

In this video, Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management*, shares his view on next year’s key defining macro themes and financial outlook.

REPRESSION, INTROSPECTION, ELECTION

2020 Outlook by Vincent Chaigneau,
Head of Research

RELATED INSIGHTS

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
According to the IMF’s Managing Director, strong international cooperation on coronavirus vaccine could speed up the world economic recovery and add $9 trillion to global income by 2025. A WHO trial found that Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon have little or no effect on hospitalized Covid-19 patients. Gilead Sciences has questioned the findings of the WHO study saying data appeared inconsistent.
INCORPORATING QUANT SIGNALS INTO EU EQUITY SECTOR/STYLE STRATEGY: MAINTAIN A TILT TO CYCLICALS AND VALUE
We present an update of our proprietary equity valuation tool, based on quant models. It provides indications of over- or undervaluation for different sectors and styles of European equities, which is further enriched by our qualitative analysis. Currently, among European equity sectors, financials, energy, telecoms, and autos look undervalued while Pharma, utilities and software appear overvalued.
CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.

*Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio is part of Generali Investments multi-boutique platform