a correction, not a bear market (yet)
It is easy to get pessimistic considering the political and policy headwinds behind the nasty market correction in October. The Fed, trade war and Italy/EU standoff will keep volatility high. Fed normalization was always going to shock both volatility and the bond-stock correlation. We see the recent sell-off as yet another, if more severe, warning that there aren’t many places to hide at this stage of the cycle. But it is a correction, not the start of a bear market. Global growth isn’t crashing.
- Market Perspective
- 31/10/2018
Highlights:
- It is easy to get pessimistic considering the political and policy headwinds behind the nasty market correction in October. The Fed, trade war and Italy/EU standoff will keep volatility high.
- Fed normalization was always going to shock both volatility and the bond-stock correlation. We see the recent sell-off as yet another, if more severe, warning that there aren’t many places to hide at this stage of the cycle. But it is a correction, not the start of a bear market. Global growth isn’t crashing.
- We remain positioned for a further rise in yields (more so in South Europe), still prefer cash and favor a moderate overexposure in ‘value’ equities.
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