November 30, 2020

A SHOT IN THE ARM

In Short

The outstanding risk rally in November may appear reckless amid resurgent Covid cases, persistent risks of a hard Brexit and a (likely) split new US government taking office in January. The broad-based rally (comprising also Credit, EMs and Commodities) may seem reckless. Lockdowns in Europe may persist over the winter, while laissez-faire in the US warrants a sharply rising death toll. Daily Covid casualties exceeded 2,000 in the US even before Thanksgiving, a potential national superspreader event.

A SHOT IN THE ARM

Market Perspectives
30/11/2020

Highlights:

The outstanding risk rally in November may appear reckless amid resurgent Covid cases, persistent risks of a hard Brexit and a (likely) split new US government taking office in January.
Yet markets are right in pricing recent vaccine news as a game changer for the pandemic while central banks remain committed to extended stimulus.
We thus slightly extend our pro-risk tilt, with a sizeable overweight in Credit and (more prudently) in Equities. A weakening US dollar favours exposure to EMs. Cash and Core Government Bonds remain unattractive.

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MARKET PERSPECTIVES 12/2020 - A SHOT IN THE ARM

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US Q4 earnings season starts better than Q3 one. Expect good earnings momentum to linger, supporting positive total returns this year.

January 22, 2021

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A SHOT IN THE ARM

In Short

Highlights:

Download the full publication below

Also interesting

EM sovereign rating: more differentiation

US Q4 earnings season starts better than Q3 one. Expect good earnings momentum to linger, supporting positive total returns this year.

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES