Down but not out. The contagion of the corona virus continues, but at a slower pace. In the first days of April the total number of recorded cases, now well over one million globally, was rising by about 8.5% a day, vs. 12% around 25 March. Social distancing measures are working: Italy has passed the peak, with new cases now well below 5000 a day, down from a top above 6000. Contagion remains vivid in the UK and the US, at 13-14%, though this is also down from 25% just a week ago. The number of cases there should plateau in a couple of weeks. Unfortunately the risk of second waves is such that the lockdowns must continue until new cases drop to a very low level. Even then, substantial restrictions will most likely remain for a couple of weeks as most governments will prioritise health security. The return to a normal social and economic life will only be progressive. The roll out of fast antibody testing may facilitate that normalisation.
A test of character for Europe
In Short
Down but not out. The contagion of the corona virus continues, but at a slower pace. In the first days of April the total number of recorded cases, now well over one million globally, was rising by about 8.5% a day, vs. 12% around 25 March. Social distancing measures are working: Italy has passed the peak, with new cases now well below 5000 a day, down from a top above 6000. Contagion remains vivid in the UK and the US, at 13-14%, though this is also down from 25% just a week ago. The number of cases there should plateau in a couple of weeks. Unfortunately the risk of second waves is such that the lockdowns must continue until new cases drop to a very low level. Even then, substantial restrictions will most likely remain for a couple of weeks as most governments will prioritise health security. The return to a normal social and economic life will only be progressive. The roll out of fast antibody testing may facilitate that normalisation.
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