China macro data suggest ongoing moderate slowing

Over the last week, China’s statistical office has released its macroeconomic data set for August. Indicators came in again mixed with some small positive and negative surprises, but overall the data confirmed the view of an ongoing mild slowing.

Highlights:

  • China’s August macroeconomic data set came in again more mixed, with an overall tendency of a further softening.
  • Especially, urban investment continued to weaken as some ongoing loosening of fiscal policy failed so far to lift infrastructure investment.
  • Export and import growth softened, but overall their levels are still very strong.
  • While last week US President Trump looked ready to impose another round of tariffs on Chinese imports, most recently the US offered new trade talks. We tend to remain sceptical about a positive outcome.

 Download the full publication below.

CHINA MACRO DATA SUGGEST ONGOING MODERATE SLOWING

RELATED INSIGHTS

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
Pfizer and BioNTech candidate Covid-19 vaccine showed to be 95% effective in early analysis, an even better result compared to data released last week. Moderna candidate Covid-19 vaccine showed to be 94.5% effective in early trials involving 30,000 people. Switzerland announced ICU beds reached full capacity and no extra units are available. Oxford and AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine test results are expected by late December.
EUROPEAN DEFAULTS LIKELY TO STAY LOW
Since March, credit markets have retraced a large part of the Covid-related spread widening, alongside rebounding risk sentiment. Although the rally has been substantial, it has remained defensive with IG outperforming HY on a beta- adjusted basis. The main reason in our view have been concerns about rising defaults.
US: SPLIT GOVERNMENT NOT TOOTHLESS ON GROWTH
Narrow margins in several key swing states sent Democratic candidate Joe Biden to the White House. However, Republicans are more likely than not to keep the majority in the Senate, with voters in Georgia having their final say on two decisive seats on Jan. 5.