June 19, 2020

Covid-19: Proprietary models set to monitor pandemic evolution

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on email

In Short

At the end of 2020, a new coronavirus started spreading in China. A few months later, it was already all around the world, changing the life and habits of billions of people.
Covid-19: Proprietary models set to monitor pandemic evolution
Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on email

Highlights:

  • In this report we present stylized facts and regularities of the spread of the virus deriving from 4 proprietary statistical models which focus on: short-term forecast of contagions and deaths, longer term Gaussian model for deaths estimate and, finally, current estimate for total real cases.
  • We advocate basing cases estimates on deaths as a stable measure, less affected by testing issues than cases.
  • The evolution in the pattern of contagion rates in Western countries is typical and quite predictable: an initial outbreak with very high contagion rates followed by linear moderation as habits change and containment measures step in.
  • Some Eastern countries which succeeded in containing the virus have patterns that either skip the initial acute phase (Japan) or contain it very rapidly (Korea), leading to dramatically lower total cases and lesser strain on the Health system.
  • Gaussian models of the epidemic’s evolution predict the peaks well (and hence the maximum strain on intensive care) but the dying out phase is slower than the bell-shape curves would predict.
  • The actual number of infected people is a multiple of the official figure, and can be roughly estimated at around 100 times the official deaths.
  • The typical trajectory of an eventual new outbreak (second wave) would probably skip the initial acute phase due to the improved degree of cultural and material preparation, looking more like the Japanese case than what was experienced by Western countries.

Download the full publication below

COVID-19: PROPRIETARY MODELS SET TO MONITOR PANDEMIC EVOLUTION

Also interesting

China-flag-with-indicators-and-chart
April 16, 2021
Market Commentary

China’s Q1 GDP growth: Strong year-on-year growth amid weak momentum

size 3
April 15, 2021
Market Commentary

COVID-19 UPDATE Facts & Figures

brainstorming-concepts
April 15, 2021
Press Releases

Generali Investments Partners: Sycomore AM funds now available through CheBanca!