January 24, 2019

ECB acknowledges shift of risks to the downside but is still in ‘assessment mode’

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In Short

At today’s meeting, the ECB did not adjust its commitment to leave key rates at the present level for at least through the summer of 2019. In light of the latest disappointing macroeconomic news flow, the Governing Council now unanimously sees risks tilted to the downside but differs on whether the growth slowdown is persistent.
ECB acknowledges shift of risks to the downside but is still in ‘assessment mode’
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Highlights:

  • At today’s meeting, the ECB did not adjust its commitment to leave key rates at the present level for at least through the summer of 2019.
  • In light of the latest disappointing macroeconomic news flow, the Governing Council now unanimously sees risks tilted to the downside but differs on whether the growth slowdown is persistent.
  • The ECB is still in assessment mode and will discuss policy implication at the March meeting.
  • We see an increased risk that the ECB will postpone the timing of its first (depo) rate hike into 2020.

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ECB ACKNOWLEDGES SHIFT OF RISKS TO THE DOWNSIDE BUT IS STILL IN ‘ASSESSMENT MODE’

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