ECB on course to end QE amid high confidence in growth and inflation outlook
At today’s Governing Council meeting, the ECB left the refi rate at zero and the deposit rate at -0.4% and stated that net asset purchases will be reduced to € 15 bn after September. The statement that QE will end in December and that the key rates will not be altered at least through summer 2019 was maintained.
- As expected, key rates remained unchanged; the ECB committed itself to leave them at the present level for at least through the summer of 2019 while confirming that QE will end in December 2018.
- The ECB’s macro outlook remained positive. Growth risk still viewed as balanced with rising protectionism as the biggest downside risk.
- The post-QE reinvestment policy was again not discussed.
- We continue to expect a first (depo) rate hike in September 2019.