- After a poor start into the year, EA IG corporate bonds have rebounded despite a strong issuance activity and ironed out the recent spread widening. But, we doubt that this indicates the start of a lasting rally.
- While the fundamental situation is still sound, defaults marked a long-term trough in December, and valuations have improved, the technical situation sounds a note of caution.
- Particularly the lack of support by the ECB in combination with a negative funds flow and the highest net issuance for a long time do not bode well for this asset class and is likely to trigger a further spread widening in 2019.
- However, EA IG corporate bonds are still seen to perform better than EA government bonds in 2019.