July 31, 2020

GLOBAL VIEW – ENJOY SUMMER WHILE IT LASTS

GLOBAL VIEW – ENJOY SUMMER WHILE IT LASTS

Market Perspective
31/07/2020

Highlights:

The policy-led rally has flattened out but we expect risk sentiment to be resilient over summer. Investor positioning, the economic bounce, dollar weakness and ongoing policy support still dominate for now.
But clouds will be mounting this autumn. Already the US recovery is floundering, and hopes of a Vshape will die after summer. Covid will prove more threatening, and political risk will be rising.
Our allocation recommendation retains a risk-on bias for now, but a cautious one, focused on IG Credit. The equity OW is minimal and defensive. We stay bearish USD and warn against duration shorts.

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GLOBAL VIEW – ENJOY SUMMER WHILE IT LASTS

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