Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
- Investors entered autumn with great anxiety about the trade war and Brexit. Those risks have abated, and so have flight-to-quality flows.
- Headline risk into yearend includes trade war news (US, China, EU) and US employment data. Yet we don’t see those derailing market trends.
- The USD is pulling back from the end-September peak, historically a weaker dollar has meant lower risk adversion in both the US and Emerging Markets.
- Equities continue to offer attractive earnings yields relative to bonds; it is hard to resist the appeal, unless one fears a 2008- or 2011-like scenario.