- Disappointing macro data and political uncertainties (trade war, Brexit, US government shutdown) offered little support to global markets into the new year.
- Yet risky assets have rebounded from a panic sell-off in December. More dovish central banks, Chinese policy support and hopes of a US/China trade deal are reassuring investors that policy makers will address downside risks.
- We subscribe to Fed’s Powell underlying message: patience is a virtue. Equity prices, while stronger, still reflect a too gloomy outlook, in our view. Core yields are very low and there is scope for a moderate rise.
- We trim but retain a pro-risk allocation tilt, slightly reducing our underweight in govies and keeping an overweight in credit.