Market Compass
January 2019

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

  • Fears on global growth added to the effects of shrinking support from central banks in triggering market angst.

  • The rise of the US dollar is set to stop as the growth and interest rate gap between the US and Euro Area (EA) shrinks. This will bring some relief to the strongest among the Emerging Markets (EM).

  • Despite still solid US growth, fears of a coming recession and the negative effects of the withdrawal of past monetary stimulus will limit the upside for risky assets and increase the downside risks.

  • Fears of a hard landing, especially in Europe, reflected in asset prices are exaggerated. This allows for a moderate overweight in equity and credit short term

MARKET COMPASS JANUARY 2019

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