Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Easing global policy concerns (Brexit, US-China tensions) coincide with bottoming trade and manufacturing data, but new tension in the Middle East are likely to dampen the sentiment.
Some good news are already discounted by financial markets, but the positive risk/moderate inflation environment will favor risk sentiment in 2020, barring an escalation in political tensions.
We still expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates in H1. The European Central Bank (ECB) will keep its accomodative stance.
Improved macro fundamentals justify an increase in the overweight in Credit and Equities, financed by an higher underweight in Sovereign bonds and Cash.