July 4, 2019

Market Compass July 2019

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In Short

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass July 2019
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  • US/China trade war uncertainties and a higher risk of a hard Brexit depress business sentiment and trade.

  • More visible signs of a slowing US economy, but overall we expect domestic demand in the advanced economies to offset the headwinds from trade.

  • Trade tensions and weak inflation forced central banks to restart accomodation. We expect the Fed to cut rates in July and the ECB to start easying in September at the latest, possibly with another round of Quantitative Easing (QE).

  • Global uncertainty and accomodative central banks keep core yields down, but search for yield and still solid fundamentals underpin credit and (to a lesser extent) equities.

MARKET COMPASS
JULY 2019

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