Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
A sharp turn for the worse in US-China trade talks, the risk of a hard Brexit and renewed Italian fiscal woes have spoiled the rally in risk assets.
Given the high political uncertainty, we further reduce the pro-risk tilt in our portfolios. In particular, we cut our overweight in equities to almost neutral.
Thanks to solid domestic demand and accommodative central banks, we still see selected opportunities e.g. in longer dated corporate bonds.
We still expect a EUR/USD recovery later this year on fading US growth outperformance. But political uncertainties prevent us from taking an active position now.