Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitive and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant view into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
- Risk assets have performed well so far but a sustained rally requires an improvement in the macro outlook.
- The risk of a trade war remains a major risk, but we expect the US to moderate the tone ahead of next year’s election.
- Inflation weakness makes central banks more likely to deliver dovish surprises.
- We keep a pro-risk bias: a small overweight in equity, a bigger one in credit and an underweight in core government bonds.