Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
After the sharp market correction in October, the Fed, trade war and Italy/European Union (EU) standoff will keep volatility high. But many bad news have been priced in already.
However, growth remains solid and the economy is not heading to a recession.
Clearer evidence of inflation and labor market tightening will have the Fed continue in its rate hiking. The European Central Bank (ECB) has not signalled any change in policy: Quantitative Easing (QE) will end in December as expected.
We remain positioned for a further moderate rise in yields (more so, in Southern Europe), still prefer cash and favor a small overexposure in value equities.