Market Compass
October 2018

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

  • Market Outlook
  • Global growth while solid, has passed its peak and became more uneven among countries. Weaknesses in some emerging economies (Turkey and Argentina) contrast with above potential US growth.  
  • Politics (Italy, Brexit, US trade and foreign policy) will remain a strong risk factor. Yet growth in the US and China should moderate but stay solid. In the Euro Area strong domestic activity provides a cushion to risks to export.
  • We expect the Fed as well as the ECB to proceed on their policy normalization path amid signs of higher underlying inflation.
  • Despite these risks, sentiment and positioning lead us to re-weight slightly towards equities and credit, starting from the  cautious allocation we suggested this summer. 
MARKET COMPASS OCTOBER 2018
DOWNLOAD
MORE INSIGHTS

RELATED INSIGHTS

READ NOW
COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
US President-elect Joe Biden has unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal. Following the recent increase in cases, China has imposed new restrictions and lockdowns in the Hebei province. Canada has implemented new restrictions and a provincewide curfew in Quebec that will last until February 8. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the recent rise in Covid-19 cases could force the country to prolong the nationwide lockdown until April.
READ NOW
EQUITIES: STAY POSITIVE WITH A VALUE-CYCLICAL TILT
Following a monster rally in stocks last autumn, multiples are well above historical averages, but equity investors can count on lingering low yields, tighter credit spreads and increasing central banks’ balance sheets which in turn maintain low the cost of equity and the discount rate of future cash flows.
READ NOW
Video Outlook 2021: Repair and Despair
Watch the Outlook video with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Investments
MORE INSIGHTS