- Market Outlook
- 08/10/2018
- Global growth while solid, has passed its peak and became more uneven among countries. Weaknesses in some emerging economies (Turkey and Argentina) contrast with above potential US growth.
- Politics (Italy, Brexit, US trade and foreign policy) will remain a strong risk factor. Yet growth in the US and China should moderate but stay solid. In the Euro Area strong domestic activity provides a cushion to risks to export.
- We expect the Fed as well as the ECB to proceed on their policy normalization path amid signs of higher underlying inflation.
- Despite these risks, sentiment and positioning lead us to re-weight slightly towards equities and credit, starting from the cautious allocation we suggested this summer.
