Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
- The strong US performance supports global growth, but political uncertainties (Trade war, Brexit, Italy) will weigh on sentiment over the next months. The increase in US policy rates will have global spillovers.
- Some Emerging Markets’ currencies are weakening significantly given the higher US rates, but a global crisis looks unlikely, given the overall solid economic fundamentals.
- Political uncertainty will keep core bond yields low for now. However, in the longer run, resilient growth, inflation and reduced support by central banks will support them.
- Volatility in Developed Markets’ equity and rates appears low, given the forthcoming monetary tightening. We keep a defensive stance by holding cash and prefer equity over bonds given the looming monetary tightening.