Market Compass
September 2019

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

  • Ruthless policy is rattling markets. Trump is ramping up pressure on China, while British PM Johnson is suspending parliament for under-pinning his determinedness to deliver Brexit.

  • Uncertainties are harmful for the economy and risk sentiment alike. The fiscal side remains hesitant. The duty of accommodation falls on central banks again, but policy effectiveness is in doubt.

  • Yields are unlikely to bounce back soon. Looming ECB asset purchases and an intense search for yield keep supporting Credit. The risk of equity setbacks has risen, but cautious investor positioning and low yields keep us relatively constructive.

  • We trim overall risk of our investments, expecially in equities.



Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine will undergo a new global trial as critics questioned the claim that it could protect up to 90% of people against coronavirus. Hetero, one of India’s leading pharmaceutical companies, agreed to produce over 100 million doses of Sputnik V vaccine. Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro said he will not take a coronavirus vaccine.
Generali Global Infrastructure launches two infrastructure funds to support the European recovery
Milan – Infrastructure assets are considered key in re-shaping a sustainable and resilient recovery path for Europe together with a greener, more digital and people-centered world. To support this transformational shift Generali Global Infrastructure1 (GGI), a boutique focused on infrastructure debt and part of Generali Group’s multi-boutique asset management platform, has launched two infrastructure funds supporting the European recovery.
Since March, credit markets have retraced a large part of the Covid-related spread widening, alongside rebounding risk sentiment. Although the rally has been substantial, it has remained defensive with IG outperforming HY on a beta- adjusted basis. The main reason in our view have been concerns about rising defaults.