Risky assets proved to be very efficient this year, despite the fact that final investors have essentially avoided shares. Only recently have we noticed signs of excessive caution. The resemblance is surprising: is it a repeat of the 2016 rally? Are the economy and profits strong enough to support the stock market momentum? Will central banks continue to revive animal spirits? Have the ratings already been extended?

In his latest macro video, Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, addresses these questions and makes recommendations on investments.

Find out more and watch the video!

NOW THE HARD PART

Market View by Vincent Chaigneau,
Head of Research

MORE INSIGHTS

CHINA’S Q4 GDP GROWTH SURPRISED ON THE UPSIDE, BUT RISKS TO THE OUTLOOK HAVE INCREASED
This morning, China published its Q4 GDP growth alongside with December monthly activity data. Q4 growth accelerated to 6.5% yoy which lifted total 2020 GDP to 2.3%. December real activity data were more mixed. While exports came in strongly, important domestic demand components were a bit unsteady.
COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
US President-elect Joe Biden has unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal. Following the recent increase in cases, China has imposed new restrictions and lockdowns in the Hebei province. Canada has implemented new restrictions and a provincewide curfew in Quebec that will last until February 8. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the recent rise in Covid-19 cases could force the country to prolong the nationwide lockdown until April.
EQUITIES: STAY POSITIVE WITH A VALUE-CYCLICAL TILT
Following a monster rally in stocks last autumn, multiples are well above historical averages, but equity investors can count on lingering low yields, tighter credit spreads and increasing central banks’ balance sheets which in turn maintain low the cost of equity and the discount rate of future cash flows.