It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over. The coronavirus contagion continues to slow, but it is not a straight line to zero. In the two weeks to 10 April, the daily growth in the total number of recorded cases globally had slowed linearly from about 12% to 6%. But over the past week that pace has lost just over one point (now below 5%). Unfortunately the decline towards 0% is likely to be asymptotic. And until the number of new cases falls to a very low level, it will be hard to ease the lockdowns measures. The risk indeed is that a second wave of infections would cause more deaths and force society back into severe lockdown.
Pause for (sobering) thought
In Short
It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over. The coronavirus contagion continues to slow, but it is not a straight line to zero. In the two weeks to 10 April, the daily growth in the total number of recorded cases globally had slowed linearly from about 12% to 6%. But over the past week that pace has lost just over one point (now below 5%). Unfortunately the decline towards 0% is likely to be asymptotic. And until the number of new cases falls to a very low level, it will be hard to ease the lockdowns measures. The risk indeed is that a second wave of infections would cause more deaths and force society back into severe lockdown.
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