Pause for (sobering) thought
Joint Research & Front Office Communication
Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A.
Società di gestione del risparmio
- Market commentary
- 17/04/2020
It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over. The coronavirus contagion continues to slow, but it is not a straight line to zero. In the two weeks to 10 April, the daily growth in the total number of recorded cases globally had slowed linearly from about 12% to 6%. But over the past week that pace has lost just over one point (now below 5%). Unfortunately the decline towards 0% is likely to be asymptotic. And until the number of new cases falls to a very low level, it will be hard to ease the lockdowns measures. The risk indeed is that a second wave of infections would cause more deaths and force society back into severe lockdown.
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China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
