A new scenario of inflationary risk is upon us but investors seem to think that it is going to be all right, as long as central banks will continue to save the day. But is this really going to be the case?
We believe that the ending is not yet written on the wall and the potential outcomes will be path-dependent. In contrast to the last 12 years, delivering investment returns in the new scenario will be extremely difficult, and investors will need to keep flexibility and rely less on market “betas” than they did in past.
Is the world becoming inflationary?
The reasons for expecting an inflationary environment are complex. After 12 years of extraordinary measures by central banks, a new type of life support was unavoidable to address the economic consequences of the Covid crisis. Radical policy changes were required. The biggest shift has been the move from monetary policy driving economic growth and financial markets to a convergence of fiscal and monetary policy at a scale which has never been seen in (at least modern) history. It is a game-changer in a number of ways.
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