MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH
Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:
- dedicated Focal Points, Core Matters & White Papers
- up-to-date Market Commentaries
- current Market Perspectives and medium-term Investment Views
- a monthly Market Compass
- Macro View Videos and Podcasts
- …and more!
THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
OUTLOOK 2021
OUTLOOK 2021 - REPAIR AND DESPAIR
2021 will see a ‘repair’ of the deep Covid-19 damages, with the economy set to rebound strongly as society normalises into summer. But there is much to despair about. Potential growth will be lower out of this crisis. Employment will recover more slowly and Covid has fanned inequalities. Investors can also lament about the fall of future investment returns.
Market Perspectives and Investment View
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Video Outlook 2021: Repair and Despair
Watch the Outlook video with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Investments
OUTLOOK 2021 - REPAIR AND DESPAIR
2021 will see a ‘repair’ of the deep Covid-19 damages, with the economy set to rebound strongly as society normalises into summer. But there is much to despair about. Potential growth will be lower out of this crisis. Employment will recover more slowly and Covid has fanned inequalities. Investors can also lament about the fall of future investment returns.
A SHOT IN THE ARM
The outstanding risk rally in November may appear reckless amid resurgent Covid cases, persistent risks of a hard Brexit and a (likely) split new US government taking office in January. The broad-based rally (comprising also Credit, EMs and
Commodities) may seem reckless. Lockdowns in Europe
may persist over the winter, while laissez-faire in the US
warrants a sharply rising death toll. Daily Covid casualties
exceeded 2,000 in the US even before Thanksgiving, a
potential national superspreader event.
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Core Matters & White Papers
HOW THREATENING IS COVID-19 FOR EA PUBLIC FINANCES?
The 2008 economic collapse and the ensuing euro fiscal crisis triggered a surge in public debt around the world. However, this is set to be dwarfed by the fallout of the cur-rent crisis, as governments have been forced to an unprecedented fiscal stimulus to cushion the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL: A GAME CHANGER?
The European Green Deal is the EU Commission’s new growth strategy. It aims to turn the climate and environmental challenges into an opportunity to modernise the EU economy, endorsing a large investment program. The plan targets emissions reduction of at least 55% by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050.
LIFE AFTER COVID: 5-YEAR TOTAL RETURN FORECASTS
The Global Covid Crisis (GCC) has had a profound impact not just on our lives but also the economy and financial markets. Even after those life-changing developments and sharp market movements, our 5-year total return forecasts have not changed dramatically. We reiterate the view that future returns will fall very short of historical ones, particularly those of the past ten years.
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Focal Points
EQUITIES: STAY POSITIVE WITH A VALUE-CYCLICAL TILT
Following a monster rally in stocks last autumn, multiples are well above historical averages, but equity investors can count
on lingering low yields, tighter credit spreads and increasing central banks’ balance sheets which in turn maintain low the
cost of equity and the discount rate of future cash flows.
EUROPEAN DEFAULTS LIKELY TO STAY LOW
Since March, credit markets have retraced a large part of
the Covid-related spread widening, alongside rebounding
risk sentiment. Although the rally has been substantial, it
has remained defensive with IG outperforming HY on a beta-
adjusted basis. The main reason in our view have been concerns about rising defaults.
US: SPLIT GOVERNMENT NOT TOOTHLESS ON GROWTH
Narrow margins in several key swing states sent Democratic
candidate Joe Biden to the White House. However, Republicans are more likely than not to keep the majority in
the Senate, with voters in Georgia having their final say on
two decisive seats on Jan. 5.
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Market commentaries
COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
US President-elect Joe Biden has unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal. Following the recent increase in cases, China has imposed new restrictions and lockdowns in the Hebei province. Canada has implemented new restrictions and a provincewide curfew in Quebec that will last until February 8. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the recent rise in Covid-19 cases could force the country to prolong the nationwide lockdown until April.
Video Outlook 2021: Repair and Despair
Watch the Outlook video with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Investments
US: Fiscal stimulus to boost GDP growth to 5.5% in 2021
The thin majority in the Senate will allow the incoming administration to deliver quickly a sizeable fiscal stimulus. We expect a package worth around US$ 800bn (on top of the US$ 900bn already agreed on in December), centred on the strengthening of direct income support to households, extended unemployment benefit and aid to local governments.
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Market Compass
Market Compass January 2021
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass December 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass November 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
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Macro view videos and podcasts
Video Outlook 2021: Repair and Despair
Watch the Outlook video with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Investments
THE SPOTLIGHT - GENERALI INVESTMENTS PODCAST
IS THE RECENT RISK RALLY SUSTAINABLE?
IS THE RECENT RISK RALLY SUSTAINABLE?
In our latest Podcast Interview, Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Investments, shares his views on the sustainability of the recent risk rally and other relevant questions of the moment.
Investing in credit - webinar
Credit is set to play a significantly bigger role in the future of returns. Watch the replay or listen to the podcast of this insightful debate
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