MARKET RESEARCH HUB
MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH
Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:
- dedicated Focal Points, Core Matters & White Papers
- up-to-date Market Commentaries
- current Market Perspectives and medium-term Investment Views
- a monthly Market Compass
- Macro View Videos and Podcasts
- …and more!
THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Perspectives and Investment View
A (TEMPORARY) COVID ‘LEG DOWN’
The rise in new Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdowns across Europe are casting long shadows over the economic recovery and markets. Yet much more targeted restrictions, a strong Chinese rebound and continued massive fiscal and monetary policy support will keep the second wave’s impact far more muted than in spring.
INVESTMENT VIEW Q4: THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Given the surge in government and corporate debt, policy will inevitably focus on making this load sustainable: financial repression, spearheaded by central banks, is set to reach a whole new level.
− Investors will need to navigate many icebergs this autumn: Covid uncertainties, a hard (or semi-hard) Brexit, the US elections and the risk associated to the crowding of positions (Growth stocks). So our positive risk bias is cautious.
COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
After a buoyant August for risk assets, the rally is likely to flatten out. Rising new infections into the autumn, a leveling recovery pace and diverse political risks (US politics, Brexit, geopolitics) will keep a lid on risk sentiment.
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Core Matters & White Papers
LIFE AFTER COVID: 5-YEAR TOTAL RETURN FORECASTS
The Global Covid Crisis (GCC) has had a profound impact not just on our lives but also the economy and financial markets. Even after those life-changing developments and sharp market movements, our 5-year total return forecasts have not changed dramatically. We reiterate the view that future returns will fall very short of historical ones, particularly those of the past ten years.
THE ASCENT OF QUASIGOVERNMENT BONDS
The market value of euro-denominated quasi-government bonds has multiplied in recent years. Amid the rescue
measures of governments in response to Covid-19, the importance of this asset class is set to increase further.
LIFE AFTER COVID:
THE LDI VIEW
THE LDI VIEW
In this paper our Research and Investment teams analyse “Life after Covid“, covering our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
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Focal Points
EQUITIES: POSITIVE RETURNS AHEAD DESPITE CHALLENGES
Equity markets have rebounded from a historical slump in Q1, with US markets even posting fresh record highs. We acknowledge the risen risks of setbacks amid loftier valuations, elevated political risks (US elections, Brexit and US-China
frictions) and Covid uncertainties into autumn.
TAKING MONETARY POLICY TO YET ANOTHER LEVEL
The presentation of the new Long Term goal and strategy
on August 27 marks a deep shift in the Fed’s monetary policy.
The new way inflation and the labour market will affect
monetary policy will result in a marked downward bias to
interest rates.
BREXIT: PAINFUL NEGOTIATIONS WITH A MODEST RESULT AHEAD
In a recent high level meeting, PM Johnson notified the EU that the UK will not ask for an extension of the Brexit transition period. In accordance, he opted to forego the end of June deadline. This decision does not come as a surprise.
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Market commentaries
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COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
According to the IMF’s Managing Director, strong international cooperation on coronavirus vaccine could speed up the
world economic recovery and add $9 trillion to global income by 2025. A WHO trial found that Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon have little or no effect on hospitalized
Covid-19 patients.
INCORPORATING QUANT SIGNALS INTO EU EQUITY SECTOR/STYLE STRATEGY: MAINTAIN A TILT TO CYCLICALS AND VALUE
We present an update of our proprietary equity valuation tool, based on quant models.
It provides indications of over- or undervaluation for different sectors and styles of European equities, which is further enriched by our qualitative analysis.
CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
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Market Compass
Market Compass October 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass September 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass July 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
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Macro view videos and podcasts
THE SPOTLIGHT - GENERALI INVESTMENTS PODCAST
Q4 INVESTMENTS VIEW | THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Q4 INVESTMENTS VIEW | THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on the executive summary of the latest Investment View Report released by our Research team.
US Election 2020
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on the executive summary of the latest Investment View Report released by our Research team.
PODCAST:
MARKET PERSPECTIVES - COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
MARKET PERSPECTIVES - COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
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