MARKET RESEARCH HUB
MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH
Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:
- dedicated Focal Points, Core Matters & White Papers
- up-to-date Market Commentaries
- current Market Perspectives and medium-term Investment Views
- a monthly Market Compass
- Macro View Videos and Podcasts
- …and more!
THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Perspectives and Investment View
A (TEMPORARY) COVID ‘LEG DOWN’
The rise in new Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdowns across Europe are casting long shadows over the economic recovery and markets. Yet much more targeted restrictions, a strong Chinese rebound and continued massive fiscal and monetary policy support will keep the second wave’s impact far more muted than in spring.
INVESTMENT VIEW Q4: THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Given the surge in government and corporate debt, policy will inevitably focus on making this load sustainable: financial repression, spearheaded by central banks, is set to reach a whole new level.
− Investors will need to navigate many icebergs this autumn: Covid uncertainties, a hard (or semi-hard) Brexit, the US elections and the risk associated to the crowding of positions (Growth stocks). So our positive risk bias is cautious.
COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
After a buoyant August for risk assets, the rally is likely to flatten out. Rising new infections into the autumn, a leveling recovery pace and diverse political risks (US politics, Brexit, geopolitics) will keep a lid on risk sentiment.
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Core Matters & White Papers
LIFE AFTER COVID: 5-YEAR TOTAL RETURN FORECASTS
The Global Covid Crisis (GCC) has had a profound impact not just on our lives but also the economy and financial markets. Even after those life-changing developments and sharp market movements, our 5-year total return forecasts have not changed dramatically. We reiterate the view that future returns will fall very short of historical ones, particularly those of the past ten years.
THE ASCENT OF QUASIGOVERNMENT BONDS
The market value of euro-denominated quasi-government bonds has multiplied in recent years. Amid the rescue
measures of governments in response to Covid-19, the importance of this asset class is set to increase further.
LIFE AFTER COVID:
THE LDI VIEW
THE LDI VIEW
In this paper our Research and Investment teams analyse “Life after Covid“, covering our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
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Focal Points
EUROPEAN DEFAULTS LIKELY TO STAY LOW
Since March, credit markets have retraced a large part of
the Covid-related spread widening, alongside rebounding
risk sentiment. Although the rally has been substantial, it
has remained defensive with IG outperforming HY on a beta-
adjusted basis. The main reason in our view have been concerns about rising defaults.
US: SPLIT GOVERNMENT NOT TOOTHLESS ON GROWTH
Narrow margins in several key swing states sent Democratic
candidate Joe Biden to the White House. However, Republicans are more likely than not to keep the majority in
the Senate, with voters in Georgia having their final say on
two decisive seats on Jan. 5.
EQUITIES: POSITIVE RETURNS AHEAD DESPITE CHALLENGES
Equity markets have rebounded from a historical slump in Q1, with US markets even posting fresh record highs. We acknowledge the risen risks of setbacks amid loftier valuations, elevated political risks (US elections, Brexit and US-China
frictions) and Covid uncertainties into autumn.
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Market commentaries
READ NOW
COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
Pfizer and BioNTech candidate Covid-19 vaccine showed to be 95% effective in early analysis, an even better result compared to data released last week. Moderna candidate Covid-19 vaccine showed to be 94.5% effective in early trials involving 30,000 people. Switzerland announced ICU beds reached full capacity and no extra units are available. Oxford and AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine test results are expected by late December.
THE FED REMAINS SILENT ON CHANGES TO QE AND CALLS FOR FURTHER FISCAL STIMULUS
As widely expected, the November meeting was rather uneventful: chair Powell seized the opportunity to reiterate the strong forward guidance on rates illustrated in September and to reassure on the capability of unorthodox measures to cushion a possible downturn of the economy.
CHINA’S NEW “DUAL CIRCULATION STRATEGY”
At the end of October, China approved its “Dual Circulation Strategy” which is the new five-year economic plan (2021 – 2025). The concept has been under discussion for quite some time and President Xi highlighted it already in May. In a nutshell, the concept promotes domestic demand as the central growth engine. It foresees more independent and resilient supply chains while at the same time it intends to further opening-up the corporate sector and financial markets.
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Market Compass
Market Compass October 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass September 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass July 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
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Macro view videos and podcasts
THE SPOTLIGHT - GENERALI INVESTMENTS PODCAST
Q4 INVESTMENTS VIEW | THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Q4 INVESTMENTS VIEW | THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on the executive summary of the latest Investment View Report released by our Research team.
US Election 2020
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on the executive summary of the latest Investment View Report released by our Research team.
PODCAST:
MARKET PERSPECTIVES - COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
MARKET PERSPECTIVES - COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
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