May 24, 2020

THE EMERGING PARADOX

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on email

In Short

The easing of the lockdowns is proceeding slowly but smoothly so far. Or is it? The western world has not suffered another wave of Covid-19 contagion.
THE EMERGING PARADOX
Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on email

Highlights:

  • New Covid-19 cases have picked up – particularly in EM countries – but global markets are celebrating the reopening of the world economy.
  • We see three main forces behind the latest spell of optimism: (exaggerated) hopes of a vaccinal  reakthrough; promises of further policy action (Fed); the German-French push for the European Recovery Fund to operate fiscal transfers (the ‘frugal four’ have a less exciting plan).
  • The King dollar – a key piece of the global financial puzzle, and often a barometer of investor sentiment – has started to pull back. EM currencies (one of the most cyclical asset class) are showing signs of life; paradoxically this is happening right as Covid-19 propagates in the EM world and President Trump is toughening up his stance against China again.
  • A few days do not make a trend; our cautious views about the recovery suggest it is premature to switch to highly cyclical assets. Our guarded pro-risk stance also applies to EM investment.

Download the full publication below

THE EMERGING PARADOX

Also interesting

China-flag-with-indicators-and-chart
April 16, 2021
Market Commentary

China’s Q1 GDP growth: Strong year-on-year growth amid weak momentum

size 3
April 15, 2021
Market Commentary

COVID-19 UPDATE Facts & Figures

brainstorming-concepts
April 15, 2021
Press Releases

Generali Investments Partners: Sycomore AM funds now available through CheBanca!