- The tone and substance of the press conference after the July 31st meeting showed that the Fed is getting more concerned about the global economy and trade uncertainties, which have intensified over the last days.
- This and the deterioration shown by the latest economic indicators lead us to update our Fed call. We keep continue to expect another 25 bps cut in September but bring forward to Q4 the final 25 bps cut we projected for the beginning of 2020.
- A cut at the December meeting still seems more likely than one in October, as it would come in conjunction with a new set projections. Risks remain tilted to bolder accommodation, though.
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