Tracing the virus hit.

The Coronavirus (now known as COVID-19) continues to spread, but at a decreasing speed (see first chart). The jump in the official number of cases on Feb. 13 was due to a more comprehensive definition of infections.

Highlights:

  • The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is set to weigh markedly on global Q1 growth, owing to a sharp slowdown in China and supply chain disruptions. Just today, Apple has warned over its IPhone sales due to Covid-19 restrictions.
  • Indications are mounting, though, that a pandemic can be avoided, with the official number of new infections falling for almost two weeks. If the virus is indeed contained, most of the global economic damage – though not all – may be recovered over subsequent quarters. Our 2020 global growth forecast now stands at 2.8%, 0.2pp lower than before the epidemics.
  • As we anticipated in our Focal Point on Jan. 30, global markets are taking note. Equities in the advanced world have fully recovered their January losses, but we remain guardedly constructive on this asset class.
  • After the sharp fall, core bond yields are unlikely rebound quickly amid more dovish central bank expectations and subdued inflation.
  • IG Credit is likely to stay resilient, while USD strength may extend somewhat further until global data confirm a more robust recovery.

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TRACING THE VIRUS HIT

RELATED INSIGHTS

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
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INCORPORATING QUANT SIGNALS INTO EU EQUITY SECTOR/STYLE STRATEGY: MAINTAIN A TILT TO CYCLICALS AND VALUE
We present an update of our proprietary equity valuation tool, based on quant models. It provides indications of over- or undervaluation for different sectors and styles of European equities, which is further enriched by our qualitative analysis. Currently, among European equity sectors, financials, energy, telecoms, and autos look undervalued while Pharma, utilities and software appear overvalued.
CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.