US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS

In June the US economy added 4.8 million of jobs, bringing the unemployment rate down to 11.1%. Employment gains were particularly strong in leisure and hospitality (+2.1 million new jobs, two/fifths of the total) and retail trade, as a direct effect of the quick reopening of the economy.

Highlights:

  • The better than expected pace of job creation (+4.8m vs. +3m cons.) brought the unemployment rate back to 11.1%. Employment gains were particularly strong in sectors that reopened as restrictions were lifted. However, data collection took place before the new outburst of COVID in several states.
  • Higher frequency indicators like weekly jobless claims and daily mobility point to a slowdown in job creation. Recent evidence of another wave of cases in several large states points to downside risk.

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US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS

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