US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS

In June the US economy added 4.8 million of jobs, bringing the unemployment rate down to 11.1%. Employment gains were particularly strong in leisure and hospitality (+2.1 million new jobs, two/fifths of the total) and retail trade, as a direct effect of the quick reopening of the economy.

Highlights:

  • The better than expected pace of job creation (+4.8m vs. +3m cons.) brought the unemployment rate back to 11.1%. Employment gains were particularly strong in sectors that reopened as restrictions were lifted. However, data collection took place before the new outburst of COVID in several states.
  • Higher frequency indicators like weekly jobless claims and daily mobility point to a slowdown in job creation. Recent evidence of another wave of cases in several large states points to downside risk.

Download the full publication below

US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS

RELATED INSIGHTS

CHINA’S Q4 GDP GROWTH SURPRISED ON THE UPSIDE, BUT RISKS TO THE OUTLOOK HAVE INCREASED
This morning, China published its Q4 GDP growth alongside with December monthly activity data. Q4 growth accelerated to 6.5% yoy which lifted total 2020 GDP to 2.3%. December real activity data were more mixed. While exports came in strongly, important domestic demand components were a bit unsteady.
COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
US President-elect Joe Biden has unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal. Following the recent increase in cases, China has imposed new restrictions and lockdowns in the Hebei province. Canada has implemented new restrictions and a provincewide curfew in Quebec that will last until February 8. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the recent rise in Covid-19 cases could force the country to prolong the nationwide lockdown until April.
Video Outlook 2021: Repair and Despair
Watch the Outlook video with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Investments