US midterm election: what to expect

Polls give a 70% probability to a split Congress, with the Democrats getting the control of the House of Representatives and the Senate remaining in the Republicans’hands.

Highlights:

  • Polls give a 70% probability to a split Congress, with the Democrats getting the control of the House of Representatives and the Senate remaining in Republicans’ hands.
  • Such a scenario would imply virtually no scope for big legislative action on the fiscal front. Democrats and Trump’s support may give rise to more interest on infrastructure spending, but finding a deal in the Congress will be hard. A much more likely outcome is some revision in drug prices.
  • Bashing China is popular also among Democrats, so a softening of the stance is very unlikely. The approval of the new NAFTA should be guaranteed too, as Democrats have not yet expressed objections to the deal. A Democratic win will increase opposition to tariffs on auto.

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US MIDTERM ELECTION:
WHAT TO EXPECT

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