- Now is a key moment in the Covid-19 crisis, as the lockdowns end. Countries that have opened up early have not seen any significant relapse. But the number of new cases globally has picked up, and selected US States are easing up restrictions too early.
- V-shaped recovery? Non-sense. Vs are symmetrical… output, employment and earnings will not return to pre-crisis levels in just two quarters (not even by end 2021).
- The US employment report highlights that low-paid jobs have been hit badly. Inequality will be another major post-Covid theme.
- We are not losing sleep on the near-term fallout of the German Constitutional Court’s ruling, but it still has implications for the markets.