Vaccines to trigger uneven recoveries from Covid

In Short

The Covid-19 pandemic keeps its tight grip on economic activity. After the arrival of vaccines in late 2020 had sparked increased optimism about the speed of the recovery, latest news has somewhat soured the mood.
Focal Point

Highlights:

  • Global activity is set to rebound this year amid progressing vaccination and a reopening of economies in spring/summer. Yet with the arrival of more aggressive Covid-19 mutations, bottlenecks in the vaccine supply and the health systems under stress, lockdowns especially in Europe may last longer than previously assumed, postponing the recovery.
  • Especially the euro area is hit hard. Amid additional and prolonged restrictions and a delayed achievement of herd immunity, we lower our base 2021 GDP growth projection from 5.3% to 4.0%.
  • In contrast, speedier vaccination and the prospects of another substantial fiscal stimulus make us raise our growth expectations for the US from 5.5% to 6.1%. We reaffirm our 7.8% growth forecast for China.
  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative, but barring a severe deterioration of the pandemic, we do not expect another material easing.

Download the full publication below

FOCAL POINT ǀ VACCINES TO TRIGGER UNEVEN RECOVERIES FROM COVID
PDF

Also interesting

Picture

© Generali Investments, all rights reserved. This website is provided by Generali Investments and is considered as a marketing communication and financial promotion related to the products and services of the following companies belonging to the Generali group: Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. and Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. (hereinafter jointly, Generali Investments). Moreover, the website may contain marketing communication and financial promotion of products and services of companies part of the multi-boutique platform coordinated by Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, and in particular of Generali Global Infrastructure, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC., Plenisfer Investments SGR, Lumyna Investments and Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di Gestione del Risparmio