MARKET RESEARCH HUB

MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH

Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:

THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Market Perspectives and Investment View

COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
After a buoyant August for risk assets, the rally is likely to flatten out. Rising new infections into the autumn, a leveling recovery pace and diverse political risks (US politics, Brexit, geopolitics) will keep a lid on risk sentiment.
GLOBAL VIEW – ENJOY SUMMER WHILE IT LASTS
As lockdowns have been lifted and global activity rebounded from the Q2 nadir, hopes of a strong recovery have helped risk assets advance further over July.
INVESTMENT VIEW Q3:
COV-IDEOLOGIES
After the rescue. As we enter the 20H2, Covid-19 is still lurking around, and influ-encing our social and economic behaviours. The number of new daily cases globally is at a new high.
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Core Matters & White Papers

LIFE AFTER COVID:
THE LDI VIEW
In this paper our Research and Investment teams analyse “Life after Covid“, covering our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
HAS GLOBALISATION PEAKED ?
Globalisation has always been a matter of controversy, it has been widely credited with a rise in productivity by exploiting gains of trade
International health insurance demand and future evolution
The economics of health is different, and complicated by adverse selection and moral hazard issues.
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Focal Points

EQUITIES: POSITIVE RETURNS AHEAD DESPITE CHALLENGES
Equity markets have rebounded from a historical slump in Q1, with US markets even posting fresh record highs. We acknowledge the risen risks of setbacks amid loftier valuations, elevated political risks (US elections, Brexit and US-China frictions) and Covid uncertainties into autumn.
TAKING MONETARY POLICY TO YET ANOTHER LEVEL
The presentation of the new Long Term goal and strategy on August 27 marks a deep shift in the Fed’s monetary policy. The new way inflation and the labour market will affect monetary policy will result in a marked downward bias to interest rates.
BREXIT: PAINFUL NEGOTIATIONS WITH A MODEST RESULT AHEAD
In a recent high level meeting, PM Johnson notified the EU that the UK will not ask for an extension of the Brexit transition period. In accordance, he opted to forego the end of June deadline. This decision does not come as a surprise.
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Market commentaries

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
G7 finance ministers are expected to signal their support for extending a debt relief programme aimed at helping the poorest countries. SinoVac’s CEO said the company will be ready for worldwide distribution of its coronavirus vaccine by early next year. Moderna says it expect to produce 20 million doses of its experimental vaccine by the end of the year.
CHINA’S AGGREGATE DEMAND SHOWS SIGNS OF CATCHING UP
China’s August data set came in on the strong side. Even more importantly, the recovery seems to broaden to the demand side which had been lagging behind so far. However, in part the data may look too positive, as a payback effect from previous flooding may be involved. This implies that the outlook still needs confirmation.
HEADWINDS FOR A BREXIT TRADE DEAL ARE RISING
Yesterday, a UK government fresh legislation proposal – the Internal Market Bill - led to heated discussions in the House of Commons. According to the UK government, the bill is intended to guarantee the smooth functioning of trade and prevent disruptions between the four nations of the UK, if no deal is reached with the EU by the end of this year’s transition period.
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Market Compass

Market Compass September 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass July 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass June 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
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Macro view videos and podcasts

PODCAST:
MARKET PERSPECTIVES - COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
PODCAST:
LIFE AFTER COVID -
THE LDI VIEW
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
Macro View Video: Update with Vincent Chaigneau
In this video Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, takes a look at the impact of Coronavirus on the world economy and markets, possible policy actions and what might just be a silver lining. Find out more!
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