The economic and financial impact of demographics

Population ageing is one of the most disruptive trends of the twenty-first century: it is affecting nearly all sectors of the society, from labour market and productivity to savings and consumption behavior.


  • Ageing is a global phenomenon of unprecedented magnitude and speed. It will exacerbate the pressure on public welfare systems and can contribute to a higher political uncertainty.
  • Economically, ageing as well as the shrinking of the working population will likely lower growth and hence the neutral key rate while dissaving will lead to upside pressure on inflation.
  • On balance the demographic changes are expected to reduce real yields in the years to come. Equity sectors related to the ageing process will benefit, including Asset & wealth management.
  • The increasing importance of private provision will open up new opportunities for the insurance sector.
  • Investment behavior is expected to shift towards less risky, cash flow yielding assets.
  • EM will dominate future ageing-related investment opportunities.

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Market Compass July 2020
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.