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Market Compass February 2026

In Short

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • Global equity markets entered the new year with further advances. New US foreign and economic policy uncertainty triggered only temporary setbacks – but lasting damage to the US dollar.
  • A massive dollar sell-off is unlikely amid solid US growth and a lasting AI boom. Yet US policy crosscurrents, an eroding yield gap and continued investor diversification still keep the USD’s outlook to the weaker side for the rest of 2026.
  • Advanced valuations, high index concentration and more bullish investor positioning make risk sentiment vulnerable to setbacks.
  • That said, with the overall macro backdrop still benign (Euro Area green shoots, solid US growth, eased inflation risks) and cost-of-living concerns taming Trump’s appetite for a broad trade conflict into the mid-terms, we keep a pro-risk bias in our portfolios.
     

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Market Compass February 2026
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