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Market Compass May 2022

In Short

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • Escalation risks of the Russian war in Ukraine, looming cuts in EU energy supply and the fallout of China’s zero-Covid strategy are continued headwinds for the economy and risk assets.
  • Complacent on inflation for too long, the Fed is rushing into sizeable rate hikes while ECB officials are considering a hasty lift-off as soon as July.
  • Further upside for yields is more limited as global inflation is near peak and markets already discount a (too) long series of aggressive rate hikes.
  • We keep a mild underweight on equities. Credit offers a juicy carry, but we prefer safer segments in Investment Grade (IG).

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Market Compass May 2022
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