Market Compass November 2025

Highlights:

• Markets remain constrictive despite global uncertainties, including US/China trade frictions, the French political deadlock, a prolonged US shutdown and a resulting lack of official US data.
• The risk of setbacks has increased, following a 36% rally in global equities since April’s ‘Liberation Day’ trough, led by soaring US tech stocks. But a resilient economy and further Fed rate cuts should keep risk assets underpinned for now.
• We retain a cautious stance on EUR fixed income duration given our expectation of Euro Area (EA) economic recovery around the turn of the year. We still favour EUR IG Credit as risk premia remain resilient and demand solid.
• We expect the EUR/USD to resume its upward trend before long as yield differentials are narrowing.

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